Horizon Scanning

What is it and why use it?

Horizon Scanning is a tool to help the identification of new or emerging risks that are not currently on the risk register. Most of the risks on the risk register of a typical organisation (department, service or team) are current risks; these are risks that are reasonably well understood and are likely to be ‘under control’.

The aim of horizon scanning is to identify emerging risks. These are risks that may not yet be fully understood or may need further investigation, e.g. adult social care reform or the introduction of a new government policy whose impact is not yet fully known, etc.

These risks can be difficult to anticipate because they may take some time to happen. They may involve assumptions or truths that appear self-evident within the organisation but could turn out to be false; for example, a belief that a change programme will deliver transformational change or efficiencies.

Horizon Scanning is “not about trying to predict the future but rather to review options so that evidence-based decisions can be made” (Horizon Scanning: A Practitioner’s Guide (Institute of Risk Management) (IRM)). There are many definitions of horizon scanning, for instance:

• An organised and formal process of gathering, analysing and disseminating value added information to support decision making.
• A systematic examination of information to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues, and opportunities allowing for better preparedness and the incorporation of mitigation and exploitation into the policy-making process.
• Exploration of what the future might look like to understand uncertainties better and to analyse whether the organisation is adequately prepared for potential opportunities and threats.

When should you consider using it?

Research by the IRM has suggested the following uses of a horizon scanning process:

1. To deepen the understanding of the driving forces affecting future development of a policy or strategy area.
2. To identify gaps in understanding and bring into focus new areas of research required to understand driving forces better.
3. To build consensus amongst a range of stakeholders about the issues and how to tackle them.
4. To identify and make explicit some of the difficult policy choices and trade-offs that may need to be made in the future.
5. To create a new strategy that is resilient because it is adaptable to changing external conditions.
6. To mobilise stakeholders to action.

How do you use it?

The model below shows the key steps you might consider when conducting a horizon scanning process:

The model below shows the key steps you might consider when conducting a horizon scanning process:

Where to now?

Having undertaken your horizon scan it needs to be used to inform strategy and feed into future planning by leaders. Keeping the output relevant and updated is key to this.

Pitfalls and drawbacks to using the tool

Longer term risks can be harder to define. You may have to accept the risk is not yet fully understood. One of the outcomes from the exercise may be to understand the risk better by doing more research or collecting more data.

Emerging risks can – by their very nature – be unusual, unlikely or even seem impossible now. It’s important not to dismiss people’s ideas out of hand.

Issues that need to be considered when undertaking horizon-scanning assessments, as against an ordinary risk management activity, are: